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Marble is a one-way-in, one-way-out community, tucked into steep drainages and surrounded by dense forests. These features make Marble uniquely beautiful, but they also make Marble uniquely vulnerable to wildfire. Limited evacuation routes, heavy fuels, and homes tucked tightly into forested slopes all increase the risk of rapid fire spread.
In summer 2025, the Wildfire Collaborative began collecting detailed structural, vegetation, and fuels data in Marble to support a cutting-edge wildfire modeling project designed to help the community better understand—not just the risk to individual homes—but how fire could move through the entire town.
Wildfire Modeling in Marble
Wildfire Modeling in Marble
The town of Marble and the surrounding area lie within the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI), where homes and wildland vegetation meet. This creates a powerful question: Where should we begin mitigating risk, and how can Marble make the most meaningful progress with limited resources?
To better understand where that risk is highest—and where mitigation will matter most—the Wildfire Collaborative partnered with Carbondale & Rural Fire and the Town of Marble to launch an advanced community wildfire modeling project with Dr. Hussam Mahmoud and his team of researchers at Vanderbilt University.
The model analyzes how wildfire could move through full neighborhoods, not just individual homes. Learn more about the science behind advanced wildfire modeling. The modeling will be complete in early spring 2026 and will provide a clear, data-driven roadmap for reducing risk.
The modeling will be complete in early spring 2026 and will provide a clear, data-driven roadmap for reducing risk.
We are grateful to the Colorado River Sustainability Campaign and the Moore Foundation for supporting this work.
The model simulates how a wildfire could move through Marble and how people will travel in an evacuation, and then identifies:
Which structures will likely survive a wildfire and which need additional protections (noting that individual home data is not released)
Which homes are "superspreaders" for fire, meaning that they are most likely to transmit fire to others
The likely “fire boundary” that indicates where and how a wildfire will spread in and around Marble
What mitigation strategies will be the most successful and protecting lives and homes
Which investments will make the biggest difference in community-wide resilience
This work allows Marble to prioritize mitigation in a strategic, data-driven way, focusing limited time and funding where it will reduce the most risk—whether that’s supporting individual homeowners, improving landscape-scale fuels, or strengthening critical community nodes.
As analysis continues, this model will help Marble chart a path toward becoming a safer, more resilient community, while protecting the character and beauty that make it such a special place.
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